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In the wake of Donald Trump’s victory, Democrats are scrambling for answers that explain their defeat in the Presidential race. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders issued a statement that declared, “It should come as no great surprise that a Democratic Party which has abandoned working class people would find that the working class has abandoned them.” On an appearance on “The Interview” former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi implied that President Biden left the race too late to allow for a stronger candidate to emerge. “Had the president gotten out sooner, there may have been other candidates in the race,” she explained. Those overly simple explanations miss the deeper structural dynamics in place during the 2024 campaign: the political environment was fertile ground for Trump’s authoritarian populist message.
The 2024 election took place in the long shadow of the receding COVID-19 pandemic that had resulted in significant economic turmoil and the worst bout of inflation since the early 1980s. In 2022, the annual inflation rate peaked at 8.0%, the highest since 1981 when it stood at 10.3%. The Pandemic and resulting turmoil were a searing experience. The pain was still sufficiently fresh in the minds of many voters to be tapped by a candidate like Trump. Democratic institutions such as the legal system and news media had weakened since the prior election, making it more difficult for the public to sift fact from fiction, much less to fend off a tsunami of disinformation. The nation remained deeply polarized.
These dynamics created fertile ground for an authoritarian populist message to break through. The overly simple nature of such a message spares voters of the need to wade through complexity and makes such messages easy to understand and disseminate. That the actual explanations for the events addressed by authoritarian populists are complex and remedies to those challenges require comprehensive policy solutions are irrelevant.
Below are examples of how authoritarian populists address issues identified in news articles and reader comments to those articles.
Trump used the authoritarian populist playbook to devastating advantage. He wielded an “us vs. them” narrative, tapped into the social and economic anxieties of the nation, simplified complex issues, portrayed himself as a larger-than-life figure who would ‘fix things’ and ‘fast,’ and positioned his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, as far out-of-the-mainstream. Post-election polling data reveal that his messaging was wildly effective.
Results released by Blueprint, a public research initiative aimed at examining what Democrats needed to do to win in 2024, revealed:
The top reasons voters gave for not supporting Harris were that inflation was too high (+24), too many immigrants crossed the border (+23), and that Harris was too focused on cultural issues rather than helping the middle class (+17)… The results paint a clear picture: Democrats were punished for inflation, misalignment on immigration and cultural issues, and Biden… This suggests that Harris was weighed down heavily by the Biden administration, particularly by inflation and their track record on immigration. Harris was also weighed down by voters’ belief that she focused on liberal cultural issues. In fact, this was the most frequent criticism among swing voters who broke for Trump (+28).
Even worse, the Trump authoritarian populist message shattered the Democratic Party brand. The Blueprint analysis added, “The numbers tell an unforgiving truth: voters didn’t just want Harris to distance herself from Biden’s policies; they wanted Harris to distance herself from what they believe the Democratic Party has become.”
A strong brand can be a source of sustainable competitive advantage in business or politics alike. Consider, for example, how Black voters have persistently backed the Democratic Party for its championing the civil rights legislation of the 1960s. That brand, particularly with working class voters, non-college-educated voters, and the growing Latino population has been damaged from the breakthrough of the Trump message.
Once back in office, President-elect will seek to consolidate power. He will also seek to use the levers of power and continued authoritarian populist messaging to further undermine the Democratic Party brand.
The Democratic Party is not helpless nor in a hopeless position. It can rebuild a strong alternative brand around inclusion, empowerment, and truth.
To succeed, it will need to take a strategic approach with its messaging. Clear and relatable messaging is essential for strengthening democracy. Concise narratives empower voters to understand complex issues, fostering trust in democratic processes. Storytelling through personal examples makes policies relatable, boosting engagement and participation. Emphasizing shared values unites diverse groups, enhancing social cohesion and collective action. Providing fact-checking resources ensures access to reliable information, helping voters discern truth from falsehoods.
