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February started with news reports that the White House is preparing an executive order to eliminate the U.S. Department of Education. Even as legal precedent has affirmed that Congress controls the…existence of executive offices,” the fate of the U.S. Department of Education hangs in the balance, particularly in light of recent developments where the dismantling of U.S.A.I.D. proceeded without Congressional challenge, much less assent.
There are a wide range of possible outcomes. With the assistance of Artificial Intelligence (AI), I consolidated the range of outcomes into four major scenarios. To ensure objectivity, I asked AI to assess the likelihood of each scenario and left the qualitative probabilities as generated below. However, I suspect that Scenarios 1 and 2 are the most likely outcomes with Scenario 2 being more likely than Scenario 1.
The nation’s colleges and universities should be proactively planning for a range of scenarios. The four scenarios outlined below provide a starting point.
Scenario 1: Legal Challenges Could Halt Efforts to Eliminate the Education Department
Likelihood: Low
Despite Republican control of Congress, attempts to abolish the Education Department face strong opposition. Education advocates, state attorneys general, and international entities push back, citing legal violations and economic consequences. Courts may rule that unilateral elimination is unlawful, ensuring the continuity of federal oversight over financial aid, accreditation, and compliance requirements.
While political uncertainty creates tension, students and universities experience minimal immediate impact. Conservative state leaders, however, may intensify efforts to reshape curricula at the local level.
Scenario 2: Partial Rollback/ State-led Ideological Control
Likelihood: High
Rather than a total shutdown, budget cuts and policy shifts could significantly weaken the ED. This approach would grant states greater control, allowing conservative regions to implement ideological education policies, leading to stark curriculum differences nationwide.
Public universities in these states may become increasingly susceptible to political influence, while elite private institutions maintain autonomy. Federal financial aid programs could shrink, placing a greater burden on students to secure private loans. Education quality would likely diverge based on state policies, exacerbating regional inequalities.
Scenario 3: Eliminated in Phases/Authoritarian-type Changes
Likelihood: Moderate to High (mirrors Hungary’s centralization of education)
A gradual dismantling of the Education Department, with its responsibilities reassigned to other federal agencies, could emerge. Pell Grants and student loans might shift to the Treasury Department while state governments take on greater responsibility for education policy. Alongside this transition, stricter oversight of educators and curriculum content could be introduced, undermining academic freedom.
As federal oversight diminishes, states with weaker economies could struggle to fund education, widening disparities between regions. Accreditation and compliance processes would also shift to state-level control, creating inconsistencies in education standards.
Scenario 4: Full Abolition/State-Controlled Education
Likelihood: Moderate
In the most extreme scenario, the Education Department could be entirely eliminated, giving states complete authority over curricula and financial aid. With no federal student loan programs, tuition costs could rise dramatically, forcing students to rely solely on private lenders or state-based aid.
Accreditation standards would fragment, and ideological oversight could stifle academic discourse. Such a shift could provoke public backlash and lawsuits, but strong conservative backing might push this effort through.
