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It has often been noted by climate scientists that unlike the ongoing rise in temperatures, extreme events are increasing in non-linear fashion. Indeed, if one looks through some of the areas with long periods of record, one sees some evidence of this non-linearity.

Phoenix’s full-year data goes back to 1896. Summers have warmed since the City was established and began keeping regular records. If one looks at annual summer mean temperatures (individual summers) and plots them against 30-year moving averages (baseline summers), one finds a long period of range-bound summers. Almost abruptly as the 30-year mean summer temperature surpassed 93.5°, there has been a burst of exceptionally hot summers.

For now, more data will need to be collected to determine whether non-linear behavior has ushered in an era of periodically extreme summers that are beyond the City’s climate record. Moreover, if such extreme summers are a part of the warming, one will need to seriously consider extreme events across the world, namely the increased likelihood of such events and their economic and societal impacts.

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